CBOT March wheat is expected to retest a support at $5.12-3/4 per bushel, a break below which could cause a loss towards the next support at $5.10. These supports are identified respectively as the 50 percent and the 61.8 percent retracements of the uptrend from $5.01-1/4 to $5.24-1/2. Given that the uptrend reversed 61.8 percent of the preceding downtrend from $5.38-1/2, this 0.618 ratio may apply to the current drop which could extend to $5.10.

On the daily chart, wheat failed to break a resistance at $5.23, the 61.8 percent projection level of an upward wave C from $5.01-1/4. The resistance is strengthened by another similar one established by a falling trend line. The contract may retrace a bit lower to accumulate strength for retesting the resistance.

Copyright Reuters, 2019